A group has operations in India and the UAE and reports in US dollars. How would you handle currency in budgeting and forecasting?
What the interviewer wants to hear
- Forecast in local currency and translate at budget rates
- Separate constant-currency performance from FX effects
- Know which currencies are pegged and which float
- Identify transaction exposures and hedging policy
- Show FX sensitivity in scenarios
Model answer
I would have each business forecast in its own currency, rupees for India and dirhams for the UAE, because that is how managers run their operations. Then I would translate to dollars at fixed budget rates agreed at the start of the year. When reporting actuals, I would show results at both actual rates and budget rates, so I can split performance into a constant-currency operating variance and an FX translation variance. That stops managers being blamed or praised for currency moves. I would note that the dirham is pegged to the dollar, so most of the translation risk comes from the rupee, which floats. Separately I would look at transaction exposure, such as Indian entities buying imports in dollars, and follow the group hedging policy for forward contracts. Finally I would show a sensitivity, for example the effect on group EBITDA of a 5% move in the rupee.
Can you answer it under time pressure?
Take a timed hard round and get scored on every answer.
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