41. A launch in only one city
A new service launched only in Dubai. No single other city tracks Dubai's past sales well. Which method builds a better comparison?
- A.Use Abu Dhabi alone as the control
- B.A synthetic control built from other cities
- C.A before-and-after comparison in Dubai
- D.Compare Dubai with the national average
Show answer
Answer: B. A synthetic control built from other cities
Synthetic control finds weights on untreated units so their combined pre-launch path closely matches the treated unit. After launch, the gap between Dubai and its synthetic version estimates the effect. Placebo runs on other cities show how unusual the gap is.
42. Is 10% versus 11% significant
Control converts 10% of 5,000 users and treatment converts 11% of 5,000. Using a pooled two-proportion z-test, what is the result at α = 0.05, two-sided?
- A.z ≈ 3.3, significant
- B.z ≈ 1.0, clearly no difference
- C.z ≈ 2.1, significant
- D.z ≈ 1.6, not significant
Show answer
Answer: D. z ≈ 1.6, not significant
Pooled p = 0.105, so SE = √(0.105 × 0.895 × (1/5,000 + 1/5,000)) ≈ 0.0061. z = 0.01 / 0.0061 ≈ 1.63, and the two-sided p ≈ 0.10, above 0.05. A 10% relative lift can still be real; the test is just underpowered for it.
43. Detecting a smaller drop
An A/B test needs 20,000 users per arm to detect a 2-point drop in conversion. Roughly how many per arm are needed to detect a 1-point drop, with the same power and significance?
- A.About 80,000
- B.About 40,000
- C.About 20,000
- D.About 10,000
Show answer
Answer: A. About 80,000
Required sample size grows with 1/effect², because the standard error falls only with √n. Halving the detectable effect therefore needs about four times as many users. This is why tiny model gains are expensive to prove online.
44. Worst stores improved on their own
Head office picked the 10 worst-performing stores last quarter and sent them a coach. This quarter all 10 improved, so the coaching is called a success. What is the biggest flaw?
- A.Ten stores is too many to coach
- B.Regression to the mean: stores chosen for an unusually bad quarter tend to move back toward average anyway, so you need a similar uncoached comparison group
- C.Quarterly data is always too noisy to use
- D.The coach should have visited the best stores instead
Show answer
Answer: B. Regression to the mean: stores chosen for an unusually bad quarter tend to move back toward average anyway, so you need a similar uncoached comparison group
Part of any extreme result is bad luck, and luck does not repeat, so the worst performers usually improve with no treatment at all. Without a control group you cannot separate coaching from that natural bounce. Compare against similar low-performing stores that were not coached, ideally chosen at random.
45. Feature users retain better
Users who turned on the optional budgeting feature have 40% higher 6-month retention than users who did not. Product wants to claim the feature caused this. What is the main issue?
- A.Self-selection: engaged users are more likely to opt in and also more likely to stay, so the gap overstates the feature effect
- B.The retention window should be 12 months
- C.Retention cannot be measured for optional features
- D.The difference is too large to be real
Show answer
Answer: A. Self-selection: engaged users are more likely to opt in and also more likely to stay, so the gap overstates the feature effect
Users chose to adopt the feature, and the same motivation that made them adopt it also predicts retention. A randomised test (for example, prompting a random half to turn it on) gives a causal answer. Without one, matching on prior engagement or a before-and-after comparison with a control group reduces the bias.
46. What caused the lift
A product page test changed the layout, the photos, the price display and the button copy at once. Conversion rose 8%. The team wants to apply "the new button copy" everywhere. What is the problem?
- A.The changes are confounded: you know the whole package won, but not which change caused it; isolate the copy in a follow-up test if it matters
- B.An 8% lift is too small to matter
- C.Button copy never affects conversion
- D.Nothing; all four changes clearly helped equally
Show answer
Answer: A. The changes are confounded: you know the whole package won, but not which change caused it; isolate the copy in a follow-up test if it matters
Bundling changes is fine for shipping a better page, but it does not teach which element mattered. Some parts may even have hurt results. Test individual changes when you need to generalise a lesson.
47. An early spike after launch
A new homepage module gets twice the clicks of the old one in week one, but by week four the gap has nearly gone. What best explains this?
- A.The analytics are broken
- B.Users got worse at clicking
- C.Seasonality always halves clicks
- D.A novelty effect: returning users explored the new thing out of curiosity, so judge results after behaviour settles or on new users
Show answer
Answer: D. A novelty effect: returning users explored the new thing out of curiosity, so judge results after behaviour settles or on new users
Change itself attracts attention, which inflates early numbers. The reverse, change aversion, can also make good redesigns look bad at first. Run tests long enough and compare new and returning users separately.
48. What a p-value of 0.03 means
A test reports p = 0.03 for a difference in sign-up rate. Which statement is correct?
- A.There is a 97% chance that the new version is truly better
- B.There is a 3% chance that the result is wrong
- C.The new version converts 3% better than the old one does
- D.With no real difference, data this extreme would occur about 3% of the time
Show answer
Answer: D. With no real difference, data this extreme would occur about 3% of the time
A p-value is the probability of seeing data at least this extreme if the null hypothesis were true. It is not the probability that the hypothesis is true, nor a measure of effect size. Report effect size and a confidence interval alongside it.
49. A winning test with a hidden cost
A new checkout design increased conversion by 5%, but the refund rate rose by 15% in the test group. What should you do?
- A.Ship it; conversion is the primary metric
- B.Ignore refunds because they happen later
- C.Stop A/B testing because results are confusing
- D.Do not ship yet; investigate why refunds rose, calculate net revenue and customer impact, and adjust the design
Show answer
Answer: D. Do not ship yet; investigate why refunds rose, calculate net revenue and customer impact, and adjust the design
Guardrail metrics exist to catch harm a primary metric hides. Higher refunds may mean users were misled or confused into buying. Net impact on revenue, support cost and trust decides whether the change is truly a win.
50. Do the wins add up
Over a year, your team shipped 15 A/B test winners, each with a 2% to 5% lift in engagement. Yet overall engagement is flat. What is the best way to measure the true combined effect going forward?
- A.Add up all the lifts to report about 50% growth
- B.Stop running experiments
- C.Keep a long-term holdout group that does not get the shipped changes, and compare it with everyone else over months
- D.Rerun every old test once
Show answer
Answer: C. Keep a long-term holdout group that does not get the shipped changes, and compare it with everyone else over months
Individual test lifts often shrink over time because of novelty effects, overlap between changes, false positives and the winner's curse. A long-running holdout measures the real cumulative impact. It costs some users the improvements, so keep it small.
51. A launch in one country only
A feature launched in the UAE but not Saudi Arabia. UAE weekly orders rose 8%; Saudi orders rose 5% over the same weeks. What is the best estimate of the feature's effect?
- A.8%, the full rise seen in the UAE
- B.About 3 points, if both trend alike
- C.13%, the sum of the two rises
- D.5%, the rise seen in Saudi Arabia
Show answer
Answer: B. About 3 points, if both trend alike
The Saudi trend shows what might have happened without the feature. Difference-in-differences subtracts it: 8% - 5% = 3 points. Check that both markets moved in parallel before the launch.
52. Stopping an A/B test too early
Two days into a planned 3-week landing page test, the new version shows a 20% lift based on 40 total conversions. Your stakeholder wants to declare a winner now. What do you advise?
- A.Stop now; a 20% lift is large enough to be real
- B.Continue to the planned sample size and at least one or two full weekly cycles, because early results with few conversions are often noise
- C.Stop the test and run the old page, because tests are unreliable
- D.Keep checking every hour and stop as soon as significance is reached
Show answer
Answer: B. Continue to the planned sample size and at least one or two full weekly cycles, because early results with few conversions are often noise
With only 40 conversions, a 20% difference can easily be random. Repeatedly peeking and stopping when significance first appears inflates false positives. Running to a pre-calculated sample size over full weekly cycles accounts for weekday and weekend behaviour and gives a result you can trust.
53. Testing five variants at once
You test five variants against a control, each at 95% significance, and one variant 'wins'. What is the main concern?
- A.With five comparisons, the chance of at least one false winner is about 23%, so adjust for multiple comparisons or confirm with a retest
- B.None, because 95% significance protects every comparison
- C.The test is invalid because only two variants are allowed
- D.The winning variant is certain to be 5 times better
Show answer
Answer: A. With five comparisons, the chance of at least one false winner is about 23%, so adjust for multiple comparisons or confirm with a retest
Each comparison has a 5% false-positive risk, so across five the chance of at least one is 1 - 0.95^5, about 23%. Use corrections like Bonferroni, a stricter threshold, or a follow-up test of the winner. Pre-register the primary metric to avoid cherry-picking.
54. Testing a low-traffic page
Your "Corporate gifting" page gets 900 visits a month and 9 enquiries. The team wants an A/B test on it. What is the better approach?
- A.Make research-led changes and track them; a test would take months
- B.Run the A/B test for one week only and then pick the winner
- C.Split the page traffic into eight different variants at once
- D.Stop working on the page, since it can never really improve
Show answer
Answer: A. Make research-led changes and track them; a test would take months
With 9 conversions a month, detecting even a big lift with statistical confidence would take many months. For low-traffic pages, use qualitative research and best practice to make bold improvements, then track the trend.
55. Measuring a personalisation engine
A vendor says its personalisation engine raised revenue 18%, based on comparing personalised visitors with all others. What test gives a fair answer?
- A.A random holdout that never gets personalised content
- B.Comparing this year's revenue with last year's
- C.Comparing visitors who clicked recommendations with others
- D.Asking the vendor for more case studies
Show answer
Answer: A. A random holdout that never gets personalised content
Visitors who get or click personalised content differ from others, for example by being more engaged. Only a randomised holdout, kept on the default experience, shows what personalisation itself adds.
56. Designing a geo-lift test
You want to measure whether YouTube ads lift total sales across India, where user-level tracking is weak. Which design fits best?
- A.Compare people who watched the ad with people who skipped it
- B.Run ads everywhere and compare with last quarter
- C.Use the platform-reported view-through conversions
- D.Run ads in matched test cities and hold out similar control cities
Show answer
Answer: D. Run ads in matched test cities and hold out similar control cities
A geo-lift test turns ads on in some regions and keeps matched regions as controls, then compares total sales. It needs no user-level tracking. Comparing watchers with skippers is biased because people who watch ads already differ from people who skip.
57. Reading a holdout result
In a holdout test, 2.4% of the exposed group bought versus 2.0% of the unexposed group. What share of the exposed group's purchases did the ads cause?
- A.About 20%
- B.0.4%
- C.100%
- D.About 17%
Show answer
Answer: D. About 17%
Absolute lift is 2.4% − 2.0% = 0.4 points. As a share of exposed purchases that is 0.4 / 2.4 ≈ 16.7%. So only about one in six purchases in the exposed group was caused by the ads; the rest would have happened anyway.
58. A test winner that fades
A bold new email design beat the old one by 30% in week one, but by week four the gap was almost gone. What is a likely explanation?
- A.A novelty effect; people reacted to newness itself
- B.The email platform stopped tracking clicks properly
- C.Bold designs always lose after three weeks
- D.The audience grew too large to measure accurately
Show answer
Answer: A. A novelty effect; people reacted to newness itself
New designs or copy can get attention simply for being different, and the effect fades as people get used to them. Run tests long enough to see past the first reaction and check results by week. Lasting wins come from better messages, not just change.
59. Is the save offer really working?
60% of users shown a discount in the cancel flow accept it and stay. The team claims a 60% save rate. What is the best way to check the true effect?
- A.Compare 90-day retention against a random group shown no offer
- B.Count only the users who accept the offer twice in a row
- C.Survey users who accepted and ask whether they meant it
- D.Compare with last year's churn rate for the same calendar month
Show answer
Answer: A. Compare 90-day retention against a random group shown no offer
Some users would have stayed anyway, and some 'saved' users churn a month later. A randomised holdout shows the extra retention the offer really causes, net of discount cost, over a meaningful period.
60. A new guide works, then fades
A new in-app guide raised feature use by 40% in week one, but by week six the lift was almost gone. What is the likely explanation?
- A.A novelty effect, not a lasting change in habit
- B.The analytics tool broke down after week one
- C.Users forgot their passwords
- D.The feature was removed in week two
Show answer
Answer: A. A novelty effect, not a lasting change in habit
New things draw attention briefly, so early results can overstate impact. Measuring over a longer period and looking at whether users keep using the feature tells you if the guide built a lasting habit.